About 2 in 3 years
About 68% of individual years fall within one SWAN of the expected return in this model.
Don't just look at the numbers. See what they mean. Move the sliders and watch the bell curve respond. Built for exploring, explaining and sharing.
Five main markers show ±1 and ±2 SWAN, plus the expected return. Two lighter outer markers show ±3 SWAN. Every marker displays return and SEK change. The dashed 0% break-even line marks unchanged nominal value (before fees, taxes and inflation), and may be outside the chart. The outer markers are not absolute limits.
The dashed line marks where your portfolio neither gains nor loses money over one year. To the left: a loss. To the right: a gain. At 0%, your starting amount of 500 000 kr remains 500 000 kr, before fees, taxes and inflation.
About 68% of individual years fall within one SWAN of the expected return in this model.
About 32% of years fall outside the typical range, including the rare extremes. The two bands shown above, between 1 and 2 SWAN on either side, account for about 27% of years.
About 5% of years fall beyond two SWANs, across both tails. The amounts shown extend to ±3 SWAN as visual reference points, not maximum gains or losses. Even more extreme outcomes are possible.
Move a slider to see the explanation update.
Click “Save comparison A”, change the sliders, and see both scenarios side by side.
In this playground, SWAN is treated as the standard deviation of annual returns. The intervals are calculated as expected return ±1 SWAN (about 68%) and ±2 SWAN (about 95%), matching the tested examples from the reference teaching app. The lighter markers at ±3 SWAN illustrate still rarer thresholds (about 0.27% beyond them in total under the normal model). They are not minimum or maximum returns. This is an inferred calculation rule, not a verified statement about how Andy derives a personal SWAN number.
The 0% break-even line is at −(expected return / SWAN) standard deviations from the center; when expected return equals SWAN, it is at −1 SWAN. It marks nominal zero return, not preservation of purchasing power. The bell curve is a simplified normal distribution. Actual market returns are not perfectly normal, and losses, inflation, fees, taxes, withdrawals, correlations and sequence-of-returns risk matter. A 5% event is not scheduled to happen once every 20 years. Results are illustrations, not predictions or financial advice.
Your saved baseline: 45% Growth · 5% Infrastructure · 40% Goldilocks Stabilizer · 5% Commodities · 5% Gold.
Future interactive allocation and scoop experiments will require explicit return, volatility and correlation assumptions or sourced historical data. This version intentionally does not invent portfolio-specific SWAN estimates.
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