SWAN & Return Playground v1.3
💜 Chai's learning lab

SWAN & Return Playground

Don't just look at the numbers. See what they mean. Move the sliders and watch the bell curve respond. Built for exploring, explaining and sharing.

🎛️ Your scenario

Higher SWAN means a wider range of possible annual returns.
Illustrative one-year model. No market forecasts or live fund data.

🔔 Your bell curve

Normal distribution model

Five main markers show ±1 and ±2 SWAN, plus the expected return. Two lighter outer markers show ±3 SWAN. Every marker displays return and SEK change. The dashed 0% break-even line marks unchanged nominal value (before fees, taxes and inflation), and may be outside the chart. The outer markers are not absolute limits.

What does 0% break-even mean?

The dashed line marks where your portfolio neither gains nor loses money over one year. To the left: a loss. To the right: a gain. At 0%, your starting amount of 500 000 kr remains 500 000 kr, before fees, taxes and inflation.

Expected one-year change +35 000 kr
Typical range (68%) −2% to +16%
Wider range (95%) −11% to +25%

About 2 in 3 years

The most typical outcomes

About 68% of individual years fall within one SWAN of the expected return in this model.

Outside the typical range

Outside the typical range

About 32% of years fall outside the typical range, including the rare extremes. The two bands shown above, between 1 and 2 SWAN on either side, account for about 27% of years.

Rare extremes

Outer tails

About 5% of years fall beyond two SWANs, across both tails. The amounts shown extend to ±3 SWAN as visual reference points, not maximum gains or losses. Even more extreme outcomes are possible.